In the spring of 2022, the Bureau of Business and Economic Research created a fun but informative way to track inflation locally, called the Cheeseburger Price Index. By calculating the average cost of a cheeseburger and fries in Duluth, we aimed to offer a relatable snapshot of how prices were shifting close to home. That first year, we found that the average meal cost $11.64. When we updated the index in February 2023, amid persistent inflation concerns, the average had risen by a full dollar. Although inflation has slowed in 2024, economic uncertainty remains—especially with the threat of new tariffs on the horizon. So, we thought it was the right time to revisit the Cheeseburger Price Index and see how local prices changed in 2024 and into 2025.
In addition to updating the data to reflect the most recent years, we also expanded the scope of our Cheeseburger Price Index. The index now includes the price of a cheeseburger and fries from 20 restaurants across Duluth, offering a more comprehensive view of local food costs.
Figure 1 below shows the average cost of a cheeseburger and fries from 2018 through 2025.
As shown in the figure, the average price of a cheeseburger and French fries has increased steadily over the eight-year period. In 2018, the average price was $9.80. After a moderate rise to $10.75 in 2019, prices dipped slightly in 2020 to $10.65, likely reflecting early pandemic effects. From 2021 onward, prices climbed more sharply—reaching $13.22 in 2023. As of June 2025, the average price had increased to $13.52.
Readers might be surprised to see a small price decrease from 2023 to 2024. This drop in the average price can likely be attributed to two main causes. First, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the cost of some key ingredients—such as potatoes and cheese—decreased in price between 2023 and 2024. Second, a few new restaurants opened in Duluth during that time, offering lower prices for a cheeseburger and fries, and thereby lowering the average price. However, by 2025, ingredient costs had started to rise again. In response, about a quarter of the restaurants in our sample raised their prices, leading to a new high in the average cost of a cheeseburger and fries.
In the past, we’ve compared our Cheeseburger Price Index to both the Big Mac Index and the Consumer Price Index to see how changes in the cost of a cheeseburger and fries in Duluth stacks up against similar food items and overall prices across the U.S. The Big Mac Index is traditionally used to compare different countries’ currencies; it also allows us to compare changes in the average U.S. price of a McDonald’s Big Mac over time. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure that tracks the average change over time in prices paid by consumers for a typical basket of goods and services.
Figure 2 compares the percentage increase in the Cheeseburger Price Index (maroon) with the Consumer Price Index (gold), and the Big Mac Index (gray). All indices are benchmarked on 2018 values.
Despite all showing upward trends, the three indexes differ from year to year. The Consumer Price Index and Big Mac index have seen increases each year since 2018, with the largest increases coming between 2021 and 2024. In contrast, our Cheeseburger Price Index has shown more fluctuation with sharp increases in some years, as well as slight increases, and even decreases in other years. Overall, the Cheeseburger Price Index in Duluth has seen a higher total increase since 2018 than both the Big Mac Index and the Consumer Price Index.
In short, despite the brief relief from price increases in 2024, the cost of a cheeseburger and fries in Duluth continues to climb. We look forward to updating this index in the coming years to help illustrate how broader economic shifts impact local consumers.