This is part of a series of articles written in partnership with the University of Minnesota Community Development. Look for more articles in this series in the coming months.
As climate change continues to shape weather patterns, natural hazards, such as hurricanes, droughts, and coastal flooding events, are playing an increasing role in where people choose to live.
A recent analysis by the Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BBER) investigated the relationship between climate risk factors (that include things like storms, droughts, and extreme temperature events) and domestic migration at the county level across the U.S., while controlling for social and economic factors known to influence migration. For clarity, domestic migration refers to people relocating within the country to a different county and does not include births, deaths, or relocations to or from another country.
The study measured how often different areas of the country experience a specific natural hazard with the research team using annualized frequency variables from the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA)’s National Risk Index. These variables were then standardized and added together to create a total climate risk score for each county. This article summarizes the national key findings and highlights the climate risk scores and domestic migration patterns for Minnesota’s 87 counties from the study.
National Takeaways
Southern and Mountain West States See the Most Migration—Despite Climate Risks
Certain regions of the country have experienced high net domestic migration over the past decade. Texas and Florida lead the way with the most domestic population gained. The southeast and certain states near the Rocky Mountains also gained residents. This is notable because many of these states face high risks from natural hazards, such as hurricanes and wildfires, yet people are moving there.
Climate Risk is Just One Piece of the Migration Puzzle
There are many factors that may influence people’s decisions to move, and climate risk is currently a small part of the equation. Results showed that although climate risks are a significant predictor of domestic migration, social and economic variables, such as employment and natural amenities, are the dominant drivers affecting moves.
Similar Climate Risks, Drastically Different Domestic Migration
Two of the largest counties in the U.S. have seen opposite rates of domestic migration despite facing similar climate risks. Maricopa County, Arizona, gained nearly half a million people from other U.S. counties between 2011 and 2023, while Los Angeles County, California, lost 1.2 million residents to other counties during the same period. These counties are at an extremely high risk of heatwaves and droughts and both lie in the 99th percentile in terms of climate risk score, while being only about four hundred miles apart. This further suggests that other factors—such as cost of living, job opportunities, and housing affordability—play a greater role in migration decisions than climate risk does.
Minnesota Takeaways
Nationally, Vermont is the state with the lowest climate risk score. Michigan and West Virginia follow, ranked numbers two and three. On the other hand, Arizona, Florida and Oklahoma have the highest climate risk scores, ranking at 50, 49, and 48 respectively. Minnesota ranks at number 14, making it a state with relatively low climate risk. Within Minnesota, there is significant variation among the counties. The map below shows the climate risk score for all 87 counties in Minnesota. The top five highest and lowest counties in terms of climate risk are labeled.
The following tables show the 87 Minnesota counties with the highest and lowest climate risks scores and their net domestic migration—the number of people who have moved sub-nationally—between 2011 and 2023.
All five of the most vulnerable counties are found in the northwestern corner of the state. The risk scores of these counties are primarily driven by high tornado and wildfire frequencies in this part of the state. Many of the least vulnerable counties include those in the northeastern part of the state, with the three least vulnerable counties bordering or close to Lake Superior. The low overall climate risks in these counties can be attributed to low frequencies of heatwaves and droughts.
As shown in the tables, four of the five counties with the lowest climate risks experienced positive domestic migration, and all five of the counties with the highest climate risks experienced negative domestic migration. Although a range of factors—including social, economic, and family considerations—likely influence these migration patterns, the data show that Minnesotans are moving toward counties with lower climate risks and away from those facing higher risks.
As this research shows, climate risks currently play a small, yet notable role in domestic migration in the U.S. As climate change intensifies the natural hazards and weather events, climate risks could soon have a more pronounced influence on domestic migration.